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http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/08/19/old-farmers-almanac-winter-weather-prediction/31997189/

'The Old Farmer's Almanac' sees cold, snowy winter for U.S.

Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 4:02 p.m. EDT August 19, 2015




A man struggles through the snow on Beacon Hill in Boston, Sunday, Feb. 15, 2015. The Old Farmers Almanac is predicting another cold, snowy winter for New England.(Photo: Michael Dwyer, AP)

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The Old Farmer's Almanac released its winter weather forecast this week, inciting the usual squabble between the folksy, 224-year-old periodical and scientists who make long-term climate predictions.
The Almanac says, "Winter will be cold again in much of the nation, with below-normal temperatures along most of the Atlantic seaboard and in the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Pacific Northwest, and southwestern states."
It also predicts that snowfall will be above normal in most of the Northeast and Ohio Valley, northern Plains and Pacific Northwest. Those areas should "brace for a slew of snow."
“Super cold is coming,” said the Almanac's editor, Janice Stillman. “But the good news is that areas with record-shattering snow last winter — like Boston — won’t have to deal with quite so many flakes.”
It also calls for a cold and dry winter in California, apparently ignoring the powerful El Niño that scientists say could bring heavy rain and snow to the drought-plagued state. It also forecasts a dry winter across most of the southern U.S.
The Old Farmer's Almanac uses a "secret" formula for forecasting that includes sunspots, tides, planetary positions, climatology and meteorology, according to its website.

The Old Farmers Almanac's winter weather prediction for the USA. (Photo: Old Farmers Almanac)


The Old Farmer's Almanac, billed as the oldest periodical in North America, is not to be confused with the rival Farmers' Almanac, which also issues seasonal weather forecasts. Other articles in this year's old Almanac include "Little-known Legumes," "Moose Understood" and the best days for fishing in 2016.
Meteorologists generally scoff at the annual predictions from these almanacs.
"Your annual reminder that using the Farmers' Almanac for a seasonal meteorological outlook is about as good as going to a psychic," Houston meteorologist Matt Lanza said in a tweet.
Weather forecasting is "a rigorous and quantitative science steeped in physics, advanced math, fluid dynamics and thermodynamics," University of Georgia atmospheric scientist J. Marshall Shepherd wrote on Forbes.com. "Media fascination with predictions from almanacs or groundhogs perpetuates this perception."
The almanacs say their predictions are accurate (the Farmers' Almanac claims 80% accuracy) but that's partly because of its very general forecasts. Calling for a cold, snowy winter in Minnesota and Vermont, for instance, as it does for the upcoming winter, isn't exactly going out on a limb.
The forecast from the federal Climate Prediction Center for December, January and February calls for warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States. For southern USA, the center predicts it will be both cooler and wetter than average. That is pretty much in line with what can be expected during a typical El Niño winter.
This forecast from the prediction center, which does not include snow totals, will be updated Thursday.

The winter temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center shows warmer-than-average temperatures are likely across much of the northern U.S. and cooler-than-average temperatures are likely across the southern U.S. (Photo: Climate Prediction Center)



The winter precipitation forecast from the Climate Prediction Center says the southern U.S. will be wetter-than-average while parts of the north-central and northwestern U.S. will be drier than average. (Photo: Climate Prediction Center)